03 May Key Statistics of the Upcoming 2016 Philippine Presidential Elections: What Regions Does Your Presidential Bet Dominate?
The upcoming Philippine Presidential Elections is just 1 week away, are we aware of the statistical facts that we can learn before the elections?
Questions like; who is from the NCR? How many percent of the total voters are registered there? What region has the highest number of voters? Among the candidates, who are dominating from which area? In the previous election, where do the 2010 vice-presidential bets Roxas and Binay get their votes from? Does the leading Senator for the 2013 senatorial elections, Grace Poe, still owns Luzon? How will Santiago thrive despite the weak survey results? Will the majority of Mindanao supports Duterte? Will Duterte dominate the elections?
Some of these questions can be answered in this article while some are not, but the statistics that is shown here will help you properly gauged how many votes will be cast and where the votes are coming from.
In the upcoming election, a total of 54,363,329 voters has successfully registered themselves to the Comelec. Tracing back the records before, only 73 and 74 percent of votes are cast in the two recent presidential elections in 2004 and 2010.
Here is an infographic showing the number of voters that has been registered per region:
Region IV-A that comprises the provinces of Batangas, Cavite, Laguna, Quezon, and Rizal has the richest pool of votes that our presidential bets can acquire. This region parades a total of 14.01% of the total votes for the whole Philippines. While the Cordillera Administrative Region (CAR) got the fewest number of registered voters, recorded only at a lowly 1.66%, 100,000 short off of 1 Million votes.
Did you know that the Luzon area alone comprised 55.95% of the total number of voters in the Philippines today? This is based on the 2016 list of registered voters released by the Comelec.
With this statistics, we can trace through our history that only 3 out of the 15 elected Presidents in the Philippine Republic are coming off from the Visayas, the other 12 are from the Luzon area and none from Mindanao.
The number of registered voters in the Visayas is tallied at 11,316,789 or 20.82% which is only comprised of 3 regions, including the vote-rich Metro Cebu area. Mindanao in the other hand registered a much higher number of voters this year with 12,629,265 or 23.23%.
What areas do each president has an edge over the other?
We start with Grace Poe. In her recent visit last Tuesday, April 26, in the Solid North or the Ilocos area, Poe is optimistic to get a high vote return from the area. Region I is the 7th highest region in terms of registered voters count.
The region also includes Pangasinan, a province that the roots of her father Fernando Poe Jr. are traced. In the 2013 senatorial elections, the actual number of people who voted in the region is recorded at 2,364,293. Poe got 55.47% of that votes, that’s 2.41% overall.
Also in 2013, 12,637,491 votes are cast to Poe from the Luzon area. With her total of 20,337,327 votes, she got 61% of her votes from Luzon. But will that numbers remain at the same level considering the Vice-President that the Luzon area selected last 2010, Jejomar Binay, is now one of her opponent this election?
Let’s see how Binay’s statistics goes.
Jejomar “Jojo” Binay
FACT: No region in Luzon that Roxas has surpassed Binay in the 2010 Vice-Presidential Elections; Binay won all the 8 regions in Luzon.
2016 Luzon number of voters where Binay dominated Roxas:
In their head-to-head last 2013, here’s the result and the breakdown of votes below:
Manuel “Mar” Araneta Roxas II
While Binay got Luzon, Roxas is far ahead of Binay in the western and the central Visayas. He also dominated Cebu, records a whopping 814,397 (60.40%) to Binay’s 323,171 (23.97%).
For 2016, the registered voters for Region VI and VII where Roxas dominated Binay is at 8,617,909 (15.85%)
Aside from Roxas, there is still another presidential bet from the Visayas. It’s the feisty Senator Miriam Defensor-Santiago, who is from Ilo-Ilo city.
Fact: The highest percentage that Santiago got in her 2016 presidential campaign is only 4%.
Many had counted her out or deem her as irrelevant in this year’s election for president, having only 2% in the recent SWS survey, and have been derailed by her recent health condition.
Despite all of that, that 2% are projected to be coming from the youth and those students who are from college and universities.
Here are the independent survey results conducted in various universities in favor to Miriam as their president:
U.P. Baguio, 78.2%
U.P. Manila, 59.5%
U.P. Los Baños, 86%
De La Salle University-Manila, 75%
Polytechnic University of the Philippines, 64%
University of Santo Tomas, 66%
Ateneo De Manila University, 36.6%
University of Northern Philippines, 35.85%
Malayan Colleges Laguna, 54.7%
Colegio de San Juan de Letran, 58.5%
Holy Angel University, 40%
University of Asia and the Pacific, 43.2%
Adamson University, 64%
Ateneo de Naga University, 37.4%
Philippine Normal University, 76%
But, does the students’ votes enough to propel their bet to at least compete, if not lead, in the elections coming this 9th of May?
Santiago got Ilo-Ilo. She topped the Senatorial race in the area getting 540,607 (10.03%) for the whole Ilo-Ilo area that belongs to Region VI. She got a consistent close second in the total votings for this region behind Bong Revilla.
The 2016 Western Visayas (Region VI) Total number of registered voters is 4,242,153 (7.80%). It is important to note that this region is also one of the two regions where Mar Roxas got his ace.
Rodrigo “Digong” Duterte
While Poe and Binay are clashing in the North, Roxas and Santiago are also championing the hearts of their roots in the Visayas. But the Pride of the Southern Philippines remains no rival in his area at all.
The total registered voters in Mindanao are at 12,629,265 (23.23%). Duterte is projected to get a 60-70% clip in the Southern Philippines, having a close connection with the Muslims in Mindanao.
Duterte’s combination of ‘power’ and ‘care’ brings the sympathy and the longing of the Filipino people to him, a trait that is very opposite from the distant Liberal party administration.
The votes from Davao city is owned by Duterte, having made the city as the 4th safest city in the world, being the only Metropolis in the Philippines to make it in the top 10.
Davao region number of voters: 2,659,704, covering 4.89% of total votes in the whole Philippines.
With all of these data in the past that can be used to gauge what the present can give, only the current SWS survey for the whole Philippines can give us the more recent survey than the previous records indicate.
The SWS survey may not be the actual vote counts for the upcoming 2016 Presidential Elections, but considering its 2% margin of error, we can trust its validity despite our country’s lack of guarantee in giving survey results.
Duterte’s ascent in the survey gives us a hint that, if it is that accurate, the Philippines is close to its first ever president from Mindanao, a feat that has never been done before.
Will Digong continue his surge until the Election Day? Or will there be a plunge?
The statistics can offer us numbers from the past and current sample size of chunks of voters from different parts of the Philippines. Come May 9, then the issue will be settled, the real statistics will be revealed.
Fact: The average percentage of votes tallied in the last 2 elections is 73.5% that is only 39,685,230 votes all-in-all.